SilverLining Executive Director Kelly Wanser Submission to U.S. House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis, November 22, 2019

Introduction

SilverLining, a nonprofit organization whose mission is driving policy and innovation to ensure a safe climate within a decade, is pleased to submit these comments to the House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis.  We focus on near-term climate risk and advancing our understanding of fast-acting climate interventions that might prevent irremediable changes and alleviate the most severe impacts.

We share the sense of urgency expressed by Committee as it contemplates actions that can be taken to address the alarming effects of climate change and applaud your outreach to a broad range of stakeholders.

Urgent Need to Act

Rising heat energy in the Earth’s atmosphere is changing the world’s climate and is likely to lead to catastrophic changes in natural systems with devastating effects on people and society. While it is critical that the world work aggressively to reduce greenhouse gases that are trapping heat in the atmosphere in order to restore the health of the Earth system, even the most concerted measures to reduce emissions and remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere require many decades to take effect.  Today, we face some unknown, meaningful risk of catastrophic events in the climate system in the next few decades and no realistic means of arresting or reducing warming climate within a decade or two.

Scientific assessments suggest that interventions in the climate system to reduce warming by increasing the reflection of sunlight from the atmosphere (also known as solar climate intervention, solar radiation management, or solar geoengineering) may provide options for protecting the safety of the world’s people and stability of its natural systems. These fact-acting interventions could help stabilize the climate system, providing much-needed time to allow deployment of next-generation technologies for energy generation, transportation, agriculture, and industrial processes as well as emerging options for carbon capture and removal.

Unfortunately, today there are no formal sources of public or private sector funding for this research in the United States, and less than $10 million annually throughout the world.

We know, however, the scientific and technical research required to assess these approaches takes time. According to prominent experts who testified before the House Committee on Science and Technology in November 2017, it will require a decade of modeling, data studies, and small-scale experiments to determine whether climate intervention techniques are feasible and whether experts can constrain their risks.  

In addition to the need for dedicated research, assessing these intervention approaches requires substantial improvement in scientists’ abilities to understand the Earth system and predict climate impacts. The Earth system is one of the most complex systems humans endeavor to understand, representing an enormous challenge to understanding, predicting and remediating climate change, but one to which all of the latest technologies (e.g., artificial intelligence, remote sensing, and cloud computing, among others) have not been fully applied.

If immediate investments are made in climate intervention assessment and Earth system research, over the next decade, policymakers will have increased options for protecting the United States and the global community. The scale of these investments is relatively modest and can be phased in as research matures, but to understand these options work needs to start now.

Our responses to certain specific questions posed in the Committee’s “Request for Information” are below.  In addition, we have included as an appendix a copy of our complete report Ensuring a Safe Climate: A National Imperative for Research in Climate Intervention and Earth System Prediction

Responses to Specific Questions

Cross-Cutting Policies

5. Innovation: 

a.     Where should Congress focus an innovation agenda for climate solutions? Please identify specific areas for federal investment and, where possible, recommend the scale of investment needed to achieve results in research, development and deployment. 

Reducing uncertainty and identifying safe means of arresting climate change and/or alleviating heat stress on hearth systems requires both emergent knowledge from a large and dynamic ecosystem of researchers and directed programs pursuing specific missions in defined timescales.

Of the 13 U.S. Federal agencies with climate-related research programs, those most relevant to solar climate intervention research are the Department of Energy (DOE) with a focus on the troposphere and Earth system modeling; the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with weather and climate observation and prediction responsibilities for the Nation; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) with stratospheric platforms and Earth system observations; the National Science Foundation (NSF) in fostering community-driven research; and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) with expertise in early mission programs.

U.S. climate research is currently undertaken as basic science and almost entirely funded through federal research programs.  A number of science agencies (NOAA, NSF, NASA, DOE) have comprehensive climate research programs including earth systems models, observations, and research science.  Each have their own orientation toward climate and earth system problems, different technological and scientific strengths, and different culture. Each is likely to provide substantial value as a contributor to, and validation for, any research efforts or programs.   Several other agencies (NIST, EPA, Interior, DARPA, ONR) have significant related programs.  Today, however, most agencies have no specific resources or personnel working on solar climate intervention, and little institutional knowledge. Thus, none are positioned to respond to policymakers, provide input to international assessments, or launch or contribute to a mission effort.

 Immediate and near-term opportunities

There are immediate opportunities for extending programs in these agencies to fund modeling, observations, and small-scale field studies that would rapidly increase scientific information and inform decisions about potential investment in dedicated programs.

Specifically, Congress should include in the FY20 appropriations for the Department of Energy $15 million for research in cloud-aerosol effects and sunlight reflection within the Department of Energy’s Office of Science, specifically, the Environmental and Earth Sciences program of the Biological and Environmental Research (BER) office.  This would represent initial funding to expand the Department of Energy’s existing, but limited, stratospheric baselining and forecasting efforts. These measurements and analysis will help DOE in formulating and implementing mitigation efforts that respond to climate change-induced threats and impacts.

Cloud-aerosol basic science is currently is a focus area for BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division. Its ability to accelerate results in this area will be enhanced by expanding its activities to include controlled field experiments to isolate and examine cloud-aerosol interactions and enhancements to models and increased computing for analysis and simulation at varying scales.

In addition, Congress should include in the FY20 appropriations for NOAA $15 million for research in stratospheric chemistry and sunlight reflection within the Chemical Sciences Division of the Earth Systems Research Laboratory. 

The U.S. has the highest concentration of capabilities for observing and analyzing the stratosphere of any nation or consortium, many of them concentrated in NOAA’s Earth Systems Research Lab whose capabilities include innovation in high-sensitivity instruments, computational controls, integrated systems on high altitude platforms, and scientific analysis and assessment.  With potential changes in the levels of material introduced into the stratosphere by human activities (e.g. air and space traffic, climate intervention), it is of utmost importance to leverage these capabilities to improve our information and understanding to ensure safe conditions for the stratosphere. These funds will enable increased observations, monitoring, and forecasting of stratospheric conditions and Earth’s radiation budget.

In addition to the immediate funding discussed above, Congress also should begin taking a deeper look at the mission and capabilities of Federal agencies.

Pursuing the most critical questions of feasibility and risk for solar climate intervention, requires establishing robust programs in multiple science agencies aligned with each agency’s mission and approach, and providing for both internal funding and academic grant programs.  It may also require new authorization language that modifies the existing remit of some departments or divisions to add an applied science component for climate research.  To support the requirements of climate intervention assessment, including significant improvements in climate observation and prediction, these agencies’ related climate and atmospheric research programs will require substantial additional investment that is sustained over time.

For example, NOAA plays a special role as the agency responsible for operational data and predictions for weather and climate, with advanced capabilities for technology innovation and scientific research on the chemistry of the atmosphere, and with reporting oversight over weather modification activities. 

Congress should consider next year modifying NOAA’s current mandate to allow for an early, dedicated program within NOAA that would provide a robust, objective source of tools, data and scientific information for policymakers in the United States and around the world to assess the feasibility, risks, and requirements of any atmospheric solar climate interventions.

5-10 Year Mission

Atmospheric climate intervention research is not simply theoretical; it is aimed at reducing the risk of un-remediated heat accumulation in climate. The broad mission of such research is to identify and assess possibilities for improving safety for people and stability for natural systems. Congress should strive to design long-term Federal research efforts in this area with this mission in mind.

Definitive policy decisions about climate interventions will require a research program that encompasses all the disciplines necessary to assess and design entire solutions, with collaborators working toward a shared set of objectives along a shared timeline (Fig.1).

For solar climate intervention, this includes engineering, atmospheric, and environmental sciences; computer and data sciences; economics and risk analysis; and policy, law, and behavioral sciences – with arenas of focus ranging from nanoscale particle interactions to global-scale implementation and public interest.

Processes

This is likely to require a mission effort in a structure that can support activities undertaken across multiple agencies, national laboratories and cooperative institutions and that can explore engineering innovation alongside basic science research. It also may demand a structure that can include national security considerations.  

Given its scope and complexity, it will take time to develop and, in order to be successful, ultimately it will rely on robust efforts in multiple agencies and investments in climate research and prediction. It also may require that a robust assessment and oversight function be placed in an independent agency (e.g. NOAA) to serve as additional, objective information for policymakers and the public.

b.     How can Congress incentivize more public-private partnerships and encourage more private investment in clean energy innovation? 

Responses to climate require analysis and prediction of the earth system rely on technology-centric observations, analytics, and models, many of which can benefit from advances in the private sector that have not been adopted or fully applied in climate research.

Climate research is the highest consumer of computing resources of any scientific field outside of astrophysics but currently is constrained by insufficient computing resources, and inefficiencies associated with duplication of data and barriers to collaboration resulting from working in closed systems.  More widespread use of commercial cloud services could extend computing resources while streamlining data storage, model deployment, tool development, and maintenance.  At the same time, the ability of cloud services to support models and data available online “as a service” could vastly expand access and collaboration, accelerating scientific progress.

Other computing and analytics advances from the private sector, from quantum computing to machine learning to statistical analytic techniques may be of great benefit to climate prediction problems and better enabled by public-private partnerships, outsourcing, and improvements to procurement.

Similarly, advances in remote sensing and autonomous platforms for space, aerial, and surface observations are only in the early stages of exploration in the climate research sector.  Congress should consider supporting expanded utilization of pilot programs for assessment of these capabilities.

In the private sector, technology companies have shifted away from providing capital equipment and toward service models. This type of operational shift implies changes to workforce and skills provisioning in the technology departments of climate research agencies that forces a need to restructure staffing and modernize purchasing and procurement processes in order to access services. Congress should take account of this as it considers how research grant programs are structured, for example, because researchers primarily rely on rationed allocation of fixed computing and observational resources and lack means of funding commercially available services.

Climate Information Support 

12. Our understanding and response to the climate crisis has relied on U.S. climate observations, monitoring and research, including regular assessment reports such as the National Climate Assessment. What policies should Congress adopt to maintain and expand these efforts in order to support solutions to the climate crisis and provide decisionmakers – and the American people – with the information they need? Where possible, recommend the scale of investment needed to achieve results.

A review process led by the National Academy of Sciences to establish an agenda and oversight for U.S. federal research in solar climate intervention, as recommended in a bill introduced by Representative Jerry McNerney (CA-9) (H.R. 4586), currently is underway. The study has been funded by DOE, NOAA, NASA and several foundations, and is projected release in Q3 2020. Congress should consider carefully the recommendations in this report as it determines an appropriate funding path for research going forward. A key target should be to inform the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 6th Assessment in 2022.

All responses to climate change will change the composition and energy balance of the earth system, whether through policy or active intervention.  Understanding the risks and likely outcomes of these responses requires substantial improvements to our ability to understand and predict climate. Solar climate intervention responses underscore the requirement to substantially increase investments in models, observations and scientific research to accelerate our ability to simulate and predict the outcomes of interventions. 

In the context of escalating extremes and extraordinary tail risks, the value of improvements to prediction in climate and weather is monumental across all sectors of society.  Reducing uncertainties to support decisions about climate interventions is an insurance investment that may have among the highest rates of return in all of public sector spending. To that end, per the 2018 report, Understanding Our Future: Frontiers of Climate and Energy Data and Research by the Center for American Progress, a doubling of overall climate research spending is required.

International 

13. The climate crisis requires a global response. U.S. leadership is critical for successful global solutions. What policies should Congress adopt to support international action on the climate crisis? 

Internationally, China, India, and some developing countries have begun to explore the possibilities of climate interventions.  As climate impacts increase, pressure will build on various nations to respond and some may consider developing capabilities or attempting to deploy large-scale interventions.  Today, we lack sufficient information to inform policy decisions about whether to support these activities or object to them. U.S. leadership in understanding these interventions is an important aspect of our future national and global security.

The United States is uniquely positioned to support research in climate intervention and Earth system prediction. Open international collaboration is likely promote the strongest scientific and global policy outcomes. To that end, Congress should consider authorization to increase funding for international collaborators and collaborations in this field and increased funding for international scientific assessments.

Recently, a proposal was accepted in the United Nations (UN) before the Montreal Protocol/UN Environment Ozone Secretariat to assess potential impacts on stratospheric ozone of solar climate intervention in the stratosphere.  This creates a need for research and observations that will benefit from U.S. research investments, notably proposed stratospheric research and observations in NOAA.

Decision-makers should use and expand their capacity for scientific assessment for policymaking. Internationally, assessment of ozone impact by the Scientific Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol is an important first step, and the possibility for expanding or emulating their assessments for atmospheric interventions more broadly should be closely considered.

As interest grows, concerns about safety and societal impact create demand for oversight and governance.   It is important that governance efforts promote research to generate policy-relevant information and do not impair early research efforts or small-scale experiments.  Where successful models for scientific assessment and oversight exist, they should be closely reviewed for applicability and use. New mechanisms that require communications, legal, or other resources not commonly available to researchers should be avoided in favor of existing structures and enabling technologies for open science.

The United States can provide a model for effective governance by expanding reporting and oversight authority for NOAA for solar climate intervention research. Congress should consider authorization and funding for these efforts along with analysis of the capabilities of United Nations forums with strong scientific assessment functions to support oversight for solar climate intervention research and implementation.

Conclusion

Climate change is a real and imminent threat to natural systems and to society. It is imperative that greenhouse gas emissions are eliminated, and the United States must champion aggressive efforts to do so. It is equally as important to advance knowledge about options that might reduce warming directly in the face of rapidly escalating change.

With concerted effort, efficiency measures, technology innovation, and well-aligned incentives, the world can evolve to a low-emissions civilization that supports the energy and economic needs of its people by the end of the century. The enormous risks of climate change, however, must be addressed in the next 10 to 30 years, and sufficient options to achieve this do not exist.

Given the timing and nature of risks, the lack of knowledge and the complexity of the research, a concerted effort must be made to understand climate intervention options and to substantially advance Earth system prediction capabilities. This effort must produce information and options within the next decade for decisions to be made that ensure safety and avoid the worst effects of climate change. The objectives for such an effort cut across scientific research and development and social science research and policy.

Policymakers, civil society, philanthropists, innovators, and citizens will need to work quickly and collaboratively to be successful. U.S. Federal commitment to, and investment in, climate intervention research and capabilities will play a driving role in this process.

We are grateful that the Select Committee on the Climate Crisis has initiated this thoughtful process and hope that our input is helpful.

Thank you.